10 Days to Go; 3 data sets that support an Obama win
October 25th, 2008 | by chu |
As a follow up to “6 Reasons Obama could lose”, I have been looking at a few data sets that support an Obama win.
1. The youth vote could be huge
Last year, while helping John Della Volpe, the Director of Polling for Harvard’s Institute of Politics, start Social Sphere Strategies, we analyzed the potential of the youth vote to have a major impact on this election. We found that the number of potential new voters (registered and did not vote + eligible to register) aged 18-28 were over 50% greater than those over over the age of 60. 19 million aged 18-28 vs. only 12MM aged 61-106. The number of potential voters who did not vote aged 18-28 was greater than all the potential voters (voted + did not vote) aged 61- 69.
Everyone knows Obama has done a very effective job of registering and getting college students to vote absentee early. They could make the difference in this election.
2. New Democratic registrations out number new Republicans by as much as 4:1
In all key battle ground states, the number of new Democrats + new Independent voter registrations are greater than the number of new Republican registrations. And in Ohio and Nevada the number of new Democrats and Independents, net of new Republicans, significantly exceeds the Bush 2004 margin. In other words, If only those who voted in the last election and those who have registered new for this year vote and all of the new Republicans vote for McCain while the new Democrats and Independents all vote for Obama, Obama would win Nevada by 6% and Ohio by 3%. These two states would be enough to secure an Obama victory. For super nerds, here’s part of the data:
3. In the major battleground states with contested Senate races, the Democrats are well ahead in the polls (if this is hard to read on your computer, Presidential race is on the left; Senatorial on the right; the order is Virginia, NC, NH, Colorado):
Check out the mirror images from North Carolina where Republican Senator Libby Dole is now running behind after having a comfortable lead in the polls through August. This shows more than a movement to Obama and away from McCain; Democrats across the board are benefiting from the impact of the financial crisis.
As an interesting aside, these comparisons should give us good data post election for measuring any so-called “racial leakage.”
