RNC Spends $150K for Palin clothes and accessories – who will McCain “fire” for this?
October 22nd, 2008
Yesterday, Politico reported that the RNC has spent more than $150,000 on clothes, make-up and accessories. I will be supremely disappointed if someone doesn’t make and ad about this as real “hockey moms” struggle to get the money together to pay for this seasons skates. From the article:
The Republican National Committee has spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.
According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.
The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.
The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August
I didn’t go to Harvard but I think $150MM > $47MM and 400 staffers > 100
October 21st, 2008
In case you haven’t heard the news, Obama has an enormous money advantage going into the final 2 weeks. He raised an incredible $150MM in the month of October. From Real Clear Politics:
Republican presidential candidate John McCain reports spending $37 million in September and has $47 million for the campaign in October.
McCain’s monthly financial report filed with the Federal Election Commission shows he had $47 million in the bank at the start of October. McCain is no longer raising funds because he is participating in the presidential election public financing system. That restricts his spending to $84 million between early September and Election Day Nov. 4.
McCain’s numbers stand in sharp contrast to those of Barack Obama, his Democratic rival. Obama is not participating in public financing and raised a record-shattering $150 million in September.
To give you an idea of what you can do with that money, POTUS 08 reported last night that Obama has 400 paid staffers in Florida vs 100 for McCain.
14 Days to go; get ready for the mother of all negative campaigns
October 21st, 2008
Slate forecast:
Obama 313
McCain 157
Electoral-vote.com:
Obama 364
McCain 71
I wrote in a previous post that McCain seemed to be running a less intelligent version of the Bush/Rove ‘04 campaign; less intelligent in that the brilliance of Rove’s strategy was to split the message by keeping the “air war” (e.g. TV, convention prime time) positive while using ground war tactics (e.g house parties, direct mail) to go very, very negative on the “moral issues.”
Given the limited number of days left and McCain’s huge money and organizational disadvantage, I expect the 529’s, the RNC and McCain/Palin directly to go massively negative very soon. Expect the TV ads to show Reverend Write, “cling to” and anything else they can use.
The problem with this strategy is obvious – the backlash on McCain from some independent voters could be significant; the energizing impact on Obama’s troops huge. Dwight Gertz, one of my partners at Bain once said “the reason they never invented a nuclear hand grenade is you can’t throw it far enough to keep from blowing yourself up.”
This may be the final gut check for McCain and how he wants to be remembered.
15 Days to go; SNL’s Palin Rap
October 20th, 2008
Slate Poll Tracker (data from Pollster.com)
Obama 313
McCain 157
Electoral-Vote.com:
Obama 364
McCain 171
In case you missed it, here is the Palin Rap from SNL:
16 days to go: Obama WV campaign; fundraising; Powell Endorsement
October 19th, 2008
Iphone app now called Slate Poll Tracker ‘08
Obama 313
McCain 160
Tossup 65
This is one of those days where there is just too much to report on. Before leaving for church, I saw this great article in politico.com about West Virginia Democratic leaders taking on racism straight up; then on my way home from Myles baseball game, I learn that Powell endorsed Obama on Meet the Press and finally, I look at The Caucus and see that Obama raised $150MM, yes $150 MILLION in September.
Before you all start talking about a landslide, I still want to look carefully at the raw numbers for the swing states and read the NYT magazine article Can Obama Close the Deal With Those White Guys.
Tags: fundraising, money, Obama, powell
19 Days to go, Say it ain’t so Joe
October 16th, 2008
Iphone electoral vote app now called “Slate Poll Tracker”
Obama 313
McCain 155
In case you haven’t heard, the man referred to over and over during Wednesday’s debate as “Joe the Plumber” is neither a plumber nor making $250K a year. Here’s part of a Politico post about Joe:
NEW YORK – John McCain hung his final presidential debate performance on an Ohio plumber who campaign aides never vetted.
A day after making Joseph Wurzelbacher famous, referencing him in the debate almost two dozen times as someone who would pay higher taxes under Barack Obama, McCain learned the fine print Thursday on the plumber’s not-so-tidy personal story: He owes back taxes. He is not a licensed plumber. And it turns out that Wurzelbacher makes less than $250,000 a year, which means he would receive a tax cut if Obama were elected president.
MSNBC Analysis of Debate and state of the race
October 16th, 2008
Andy Richardson just sent this to me. A well done summary of yesterdays developments. Watch the clip if you have a few minutes. Here’s a summary:
1. McCain played well to the base in last night’s debates, but did nothing to reach out to independents
2. Obama reached out to independents and red state voters with comments about “charter schools,” and his response to the abortion question.
3. Big news yesterday was that the Republican Party has now pulled their spending from Wisconsin, although McCain is still on air. They also pulled out of Maine.
4. That means the only “2004 blue state” that is being contested is now Pennsylvania.
All this gives support to the “other view” of the polls – that they are almost all under-forecasting minority and youth vote. McCain and RNC polls and analysis may have Obama lead much greater than what is being reported.
Here’s the video:
Flash poll from tonights debate
October 15th, 2008
I am only now watching the debate in its entirety, but wanted to pass along 2 quick things. See the NYT The Caucus “First impressions from the last debate.”
CNN is broadcasting the following flash poll results:
Who did the best job in the debate?
Obama 57%
McCain 31%
Manage the economy
Obama 59%
McCain 39%
Manage the financial crisis
Obama 56%
McCain 35%
Healthcare
Obama 62%
McCain 31%
Taxes
Obama 56%
McCain 41%
Although I am re-watching the debate now, as I could not watch it through real time, if this trend continues, not a good night for McCain. As he said in 2000, “People don’t want to vote for someone who is angry.”
