After sleeping on it, I thought the Obamamercial was beautiful and touching, but will not move the undecided’s one point. Money would have been better spent:

1. Directly and clearly addressing the RNC/McCain attacks e.g. “Obama will let the government take over health care.” “Joe the plumber’s taxes will increase.” Etc.
2. Having surrogates like Colin Powell, Les Clark, Warren Buffet address the experience issue.  Even Newt Gingrich said the Powell endorsement took “the experience question off the table.”

Although I have not seen the data, I have heard several pundits claim the undecideds are mostly uninvolved people. If true this would support the theory that the polls are moving to McCain because they are responding to things like the RNC terrorist direct mail or some email about Michelle Obama spending $400 on lobster. No way they would watch a 30 minute infomercial.

I will write more about this after the election if Obama wins, but I have felt all along that the best way to attack Obama would be to say something incredibly positive about all that he has accomplished, but then state the facts that he has only X years as a community organizer, Y as an Illinois State Senator and Z as a US Senator. I would go even further to say something like “someday Barack Obama will be qualified to be president and he probably will be president, but right now, he doesn’t have the experience we need in these challenging times.” I would use a neutral, factual tone for both voice and music and let the facts speak for themselves.

A friend of mine close to Joe Trippi told me during the pre-primary period (when was that, about 50 months ago?) that Edwards focus groups and other research were finding that the majority of those they talked to wanted Obama to be president some day, but not yet.

This ad comes close, using the word “yet” at the end, but it is way too negative in tone.

Let me explain.  When I reviewed our TV advertising for AIR MILES, the agency knew it had to pass what I called the “Ray Charles” and “Beethoven” tests.  I realized that real people (e.g. customers. voters) would most likely not focus on our ads with the lazer like focus that our marketing and agency partners did (e.g. “Craig, make sure you look at the guy in the hat on the right side of the screen. We had him raise his eyebrows skeptically at the end of the spot!.”) Many would be doing something else while the ad was playing, so it had to deliver the main point with both the sound off (Beethoven) and if someone was not looking at the screen and only hearing the audio (Ray Charles.)

Less effective than it could have been, IMHO.

I have been a fan of David Gergen since he joined the Clinton administration, not because I was a fan of Clinton (because at the time I wasn’t), but because I admired his bi-partisan commitment to serve the presidency. I now find him by far the most balanced (maybe in a set of one) and insightful of all the talking heads on CNN.

Last night, he made an excellent point about Obama missing the most obvious rebuttal to McCain’s socialist charges. To paraphrase Gergen:

Giving money to low income wage earners is nothing new. The program where if you work, but do not make enough money to pay taxes and the government gives you money, is called the “earned income tax credit,” and it was started by Ronald Reagan.

Again, where’s the ad?